Oil price jump wont hit US consumer spending, market bull Tony Dwyer predicts
Wall Street bull Tony Dwyer expects consumer spending to withstand oil’s dramatic price spike following the unprecedented attack on Saudi Arabia’s crude production.
He contends it’s because Americans are spending less than ever on their fuel needs.
Dwyer makes his case in this chart.
“Total energy spending is less than 4 percent of disposable personal income,” the Canaccord Genuity chief market strategist told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Monday. “In the peak around the early 1980s, it was closer to 8, 9%. Even at the end of 2008, it was closer to 6½-7%.”
In a note Monday, Dwyer said: “WTI spent most of the current quarter below the level 2Q/19 level, and Disposable Income has been moving higher, suggesting that — despite this uptick due to the drone attack in Saudi Arabia — the cost of Energy is likely less as a percent of income than the most recent quarter.”
Dwyer is so confident that spending will weather the oil price jump that he says consumer discretionary remains one of his favorite S&P 500 groups.
“We’re really near a historic low on what the energy cost, even on an uptick, is relative to incomes,” Dwyer said.