Capitol Report: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
President Donald Trump has a love/hate relationship with polls, surveys and predictions. He loves the ones that paint him in a positive light, and, of course, he hates all those “fake” ones that don’t.
He’s going to absolutely adore this one.
According to Moody’s Analytics, Trump is headed toward another four years in the White House. And, if the numbers are right, it won’t even be close.
In fact, his Electoral College victory could very well be wider than the 304-227 margin over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election.
Since 2018, Moody’s has managed to nail the outcome every time but once — it didn’t see 2016 coming either. Here’s the Moody’s track record:
Will it get back to its winning ways? The team takes into account how consumers feel about their finances, the performance of the stock market
and their job prospects. Essentially, they’re feeling pretty good.
“Under the current Moody’s Analytics baseline economic outlook, which does not forecast any recession, the 2020 election looks like Trump’s to lose,” the authors wrote. “Democrats can still win if they are able to turn out the vote at record levels, but under normal turnout conditions, the president is projected to win.”
Moody’s uses three models to come up with its forecast. In each case, Trump gets at least 289 electoral votes.
The “pocketbook” measure, which focus on how people feel about their money situation, is where the president shines brightest, grabbing a whopping 351 electoral votes. “If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report said.
The stock market model gives him the slightest edge of 289-249, as investors continue to digest a volatile investing landscape. Then there’s the unemployment model, which leans heavily in his favor at 332-206.
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