Just how bad is the world economy going to get?
The answer to that question is key to whether hedge funds have gone out on too far a limb in aggressively shorting, or betting against, oil
Warren Pies, an energy strategist at Ned Davis Research, says hedge funds are too bearish on oil compared with the fundamentals. Citing CFTC data, he says short positions make up more than 35% of the open interest of professional money managers, for only the sixth time since the 2014 crash.
But this time, Pies says in the call of the day, the fundamental data for oil—in inventories, refining margins and other key indicators—does not support the pile-up of shorts. If the economy does not enter recession, short positions could unwind quickly, he says.
A warning from chip maker Texas Instruments
cast a bearish pall on markets. While earnings season has been benign so far, after good results from the financial sector, sell-side analysts have begun to lower their estimates for 2020 earnings, according to BNP Paribas.
Construction and mining equipment maker Caterpillar
lowered its 2019 outlook while health insurer Anthem
reported stronger-than-forecast results. After the close, software group Microsoft
and electric-car maker Tesla
will report earnings. Alphabet’s
Google said it has made a breakthrough in quantum computing, performing a target computation that would take the world’s fastest supercomputer 10,000 years, in 200 seconds.
U.S. stock futures
were a touch weaker, after a 46-point advance for the Dow Jones Industrial Average
A little bit of fear in the air—gold futures
rose nearly $8 an ounce, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury
fell 2 basis points.
Chart of the Day
Order. ORDER. Looks like the U.S. is stuck paying as much attention to the never-ending Brexit process as the U.K. is, given this chart from The Market Ear, showing the close correlation between the S&P 500
and the British pound
On Tuesday night, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson went one-for-two, as he won a vote on advancing his withdrawal agreement but lost a vote that would have wrapped up proceedings. The market is now waiting for the European Union to extend the U.K.’s departure date beyond Oct. 31.
Talking his book? Uber Technologies
CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, in Delhi, told Indians not to fall into the trap of buying cars.
Horrific news from the U.K., where 39 bodies were found in a shipping container, believed to have come from Bulgaria.
The world’s happiest rats? These rodents get to drive tiny cars and get rewarded with Froot Loops.
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