The Fed: Fed’s Brainard forecasts ‘above-trend growth’ for economy over next 18 months
The U.S. economy should be able to shake off trade uncertainty and continue on a moderate expansion path through 2020, said Fed Gov. Lael Brainard on Wednesday.
“In terms of the domestic economy, again, powered by the consumer, I do expect to see trend, of above-trend growth, actually continuing out over the course of the next year, year-and-a half,” Brainard said, in an interview on CNBC.
Some closely watched tracking estimates of fourth-quarter growth, including the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker, see growth slowing sharply to a 0.4% rate this quarter from the 1.9% rate in the July-September quarter.
Brainard said these tracker estimates are “quite a bit lower” than the consensus of Wall Street economists.
Brainard said she expects some moderation in the second half of the year, but noted the U.S. consumer “has proven enormously resilient.”
Most companies in the consumer sector remain “quite upbeat,” she said.
There should also be some “bounce-back” from special factors in the manufacturing sector, she added.