complete with 3,000-point drop, some green has been lighting up the screens this morning
Behind that are high investor hopes that governments are going to throw the kitchen sink at the novel coronavirus, with the U.S. expected to roll out a big stimulus package. Regardless, most expect wild market swings will be with us for a while.
“One essential 2008 comparison we tend to overlook was that during the Lehman crash outside the financial sector, life went on. In essence, restaurants took bookings; taxis took rides, shops were still bustling. This time around, the entire world is on the precipice of shutting down,” Stephen Innes, chief market strategist at AxiCorp, told clients.
Our call of the day comes from a forecaster who escaped this bear market by exiting 90% of stocks before the virus started to grip the world, after he warned months prior of too much optimism for equities. Yves Lamoureux, the president of macroeconomic research firm Lamoureux & Co. who correctly predicted a panic event of 2018, now sees a series of rolling bear markets ahead.
He started talking about what he calls a Global Financial Crisis 2.0 as early as late October 2019, then began selling stocks in December, leaving him with just a “few good ideas,” by late January.
“I think after 10 years of being on steroids, I’d say this market is very fragile. I was looking for something to turn the bull market out. The virus was the needle that pricked the bubble,” says Lamoureux.
He believes markets may be reaching the end of the current selloff — though it will expose overindebted companies and consumers — and that should open up opportunities to selectively pick companies. But it isn’t over.
“We’ll have another [selloff] next year and another in 2022, so I’m expecting three big waves down. They’re going to be followed by big bounces and those things should be driven by waves of the infection,” he says. Lamoureux, who says he studied microbiology at Concordia University, thinks the virus could come back more aggressively a couple more times, hitting stocks again and again.
As for picking through beaten down stocks, he cautions against buying anything, because there are no guarantees of a bounce for companies such as airlines. He’s buying life sciences type companies, and one of his biggest holdings is Schrödinger
That said, danger of panic still far exceeds danger of corona imo. If we over-allocate medical resources to corona, it will come at expense of treating other illnesses. Track graph at bottom of this page: https://t.co/7nWKjiZyFn
February retail sales, industrial production, job openings, a home builders index and business inventories are ahead.
“Nous sommes en guerre.” — French President Emmanuel Macron declares war against the coronavirus outbreak as his country joins lockdowns seen elsewhere in Europe.
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