Far from hurting the economy, what are called nonpharmaceutical interventions — for example, shutting schools, establishing quarantines and restricting business hours — mitigate economic harm as well as reduce mortality, the researchers determined.
Reacting 10 days earlier to the arrival of the pandemic in a given city increases manufacturing employment by around 5% in the post period, the researchers said. Implementing restrictions for an additional 50 days increases manufacturing employment by 6.5% after the pandemic abates.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that the results have parallels in the COVID-19 outbreak, the researchers found.
Countries such as Taiwan and Singapore have not only limited infection growth but also appear to have mitigated the worst economic disruptions of the pandemic.
Though written by Fed officials, the paper is not officially endorsed by the U.S. central bank.
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